Hive 1 Collapse
BEE HIVE COLONY COLLAPSE
INVESTIGATION REPORT
Temperature Analysis & Early Warning Indicators
| COLLAPSE DATE: | December 29, 2025 |
| AFFECTED UNIT: | Hive 1 |
| MONITORING PERIOD: | October 01, 2025 - December 29, 2025 |
| DATA POINTS ANALYZED: | 2,057 temperature readings |
| REPORT GENERATED: | January 2026 |
1. Executive Summary
This report presents a comprehensive analysis of temperature data collected from a bee hive colony (Hive 1) that experienced complete collapse on December 29, 2025. The analysis compares the collapsed hive against three healthy control hives and identifies critical early warning indicators that can be used to prevent future colony losses.
Note: 69 sensor malfunction readings (>94°F) were removed from Hive 1 data prior to analysis.
Key Findings:
- Temperature Decline: Hive 1 experienced a 30.5°F drop from early monitoring (avg 80.6°F) to final period (avg 50.1°F)
- Thermoregulation Failure: Hive 1 showed 0.834 correlation with outside temperature, indicating complete loss of thermal independence
- Excessive Variability: Hive 1 standard deviation was 13.98°F compared to 6-7°F in healthy hives (2.09x higher)
- Critical Events: 457 hours recorded below 50°F (critical threshold) and 1,529 hours below 75°F (stress threshold)
- First Warning Sign: November 7, 2025 - first temperature drop below 50°F
2. Methodology
2.1 Data Collection
Temperature data was collected via Telegraf sensors connected to an InfluxDB v2.7.12 time-series database. Data was queried from the 'bees' bucket using the Flux query language through the InfluxDB HTTP API. All queries were read-only to preserve data integrity.
| Data Source | Measurement | Date Range | Records |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hive 1 (Collapsed) | thermo.hive1 | 10/01/25 - 12/29/25 | 2,057 |
| Hive 2 (Control) | thermo.hive2 | 11/05/25 - 12/31/25 | 1,354 |
| Hive 3 (Control) | thermo.hive3 | 11/05/25 - 12/31/25 | 1,354 |
| Hive 4 (Control) | thermo.hive4 | 11/05/25 - 12/31/25 | 1,354 |
| Outside Temp | thermo.tempf | 11/05/25 - 12/31/25 | 1,354 |
2.2 Data Cleaning
Prior to analysis, 69 sensor malfunction readings were removed from Hive 1 data. These readings exceeded 94°F and were identified as sensor errors that had been remediated. This cleaning reduced the dataset from 2,126 to 2,057 records and eliminated artificial inflation of temperature variability metrics.
| Metric | Before Cleaning | After Cleaning | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Records | 2,126 | 2,057 | -69 |
| Max Temperature | 146.7°F | 93.8°F | Malfunctions removed |
| Mean Temperature | 65.6°F | 63.9°F | -1.7°F |
| Standard Deviation | 16.98°F | 14.51°F | -2.47°F |
2.3 Analysis Approach
The analysis employed the following statistical methods:
- Hourly Aggregation: Raw sensor data was aggregated to hourly means to reduce noise while preserving trends
- Rolling Statistics: 7-day rolling averages and standard deviations were calculated to identify trend changes
- Comparative Analysis: Collapsed hive metrics were compared against healthy control hives during overlapping periods
- Correlation Analysis: Pearson correlation coefficients measured thermal independence from ambient conditions
- Threshold Analysis: Temperature events were categorized against known biological thresholds for honey bee survival
2.4 Biological Reference Thresholds
| Temperature Zone | Range (°F) | Biological Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Brood Nest (Optimal) | 92-96°F | Required for healthy brood development |
| Winter Cluster Core | 80-95°F | Healthy overwintering colony |
| Cluster Stress Zone | 70-80°F | Colony under thermal stress |
| Warning Zone | 50-70°F | Colony struggling to thermoregulate |
| Critical Zone | <50°F | Bees begin to die from cold exposure |
| Lethal Zone | <40°F | Rapid mortality occurs |
3. Detailed Findings
3.1 Collapse Date Identification
Analysis of sensor data cutoff times reveals that Hive 1 stopped transmitting data on December 29, 2025 at 20:00 UTC, while all other hives continued to report through December 31, 2025. This indicates either sensor failure due to colony abandonment or physical collapse of the hive structure.
| Hive | Last Reading | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Hive 1 | December 29, 2025 @ 20:00 UTC | COLLAPSED |
| Hive 2 | December 31, 2025 @ 01:00 UTC | Active |
| Hive 3 | December 31, 2025 @ 01:00 UTC | Active |
| Hive 4 | December 31, 2025 @ 01:00 UTC | Active |
3.2 Weekly Temperature Progression
The following table shows the weekly temperature progression of Hive 1, demonstrating the gradual decline from healthy brood temperatures to critical levels:
| Week | Dates | Avg Temp (°F) | Min-Max (°F) | Std Dev (°F) | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10/01-10/08 | 91.9 | 90.7-93.8 | 0.8 | HEALTHY |
| 2 | 10/08-10/15 | 74.6 | 36.9-91.7 | 17.7 | STRESS |
| 3 | 10/15-10/22 | 80.6 | 51.1-92.7 | 11.2 | HEALTHY |
| 4 | 10/22-10/29 | 78.7 | 45.9-92.6 | 14.1 | STRESS |
| 5 | 10/29-11/05 | 70.1 | 37.3-93.2 | 21.1 | STRESS |
| 6 | 11/05-11/12 | 66.6 | 43.3-90.1 | 13.4 | WARNING |
| 7 | 11/12-11/19 | 57.8 | 36.9-87.8 | 13.9 | WARNING |
| 8 | 11/19-11/26 | 55.3 | 35.3-83.2 | 12.4 | WARNING |
| 9 | 11/26-12/03 | 55.0 | 37.5-80.2 | 11.6 | WARNING |
| 10 | 12/03-12/10 | 51.8 | 34.2-78.1 | 11.5 | WARNING |
| 11 | 12/10-12/17 | 46.8 | 32.1-68.4 | 9.7 | CRITICAL |
| 12 | 12/17-12/24 | 50.3 | 35.6-69.8 | 8.9 | WARNING |
| 13 | 12/24-12/29 | 49.1 | 33.8-62.5 | 7.8 | CRITICAL |
Key Observations:
- Week 1 (Oct 1-8): Healthy brood temperature of 91.9°F with minimal variability (std dev 0.8°F)
- Week 5 (Oct 29-Nov 5): Highest variability recorded (std dev 21.1°F) - major stress event
- Week 6 (Nov 5-12): Sharp drop to 66.6°F average - thermoregulation compromised
- Weeks 10-13 (Dec): Sustained critical temperatures below 52°F - colony in terminal decline
3.3 Temperature Variability Analysis (Standard Deviation)
Standard deviation is a critical indicator of colony health. Healthy colonies maintain stable internal temperatures regardless of external conditions. Increased variability indicates a weakening colony that can no longer thermoregulate effectively.
| Hive | Avg Temp (°F) | Std Deviation (°F) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hive 1 (Collapsed) | 59.1 | 13.98 | FAILED |
| Hive 2 (Control) | 87.2 | 6.42 | Healthy |
| Hive 3 (Control) | 85.8 | 6.89 | Healthy |
3.4 Outside Temperature Correlation
A healthy colony maintains thermal independence from outside conditions. The correlation coefficient between Hive 1 and outside temperature was 0.834 (where 1.0 = perfect correlation).
Temperature Differential Analysis:
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Average Differential | 14.8°F | Colony struggling (should be >30°F) |
| Minimum Differential | -5.2°F | Hive colder than outside at times |
| Maximum Differential | 48.3°F | Brief periods of normal regulation |
3.5 Critical Temperature Events
| Event Type | Threshold | Hours Recorded | First Occurrence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cluster Stress | <75°F | 1,529 | October 10, 2025 |
| Critical Cold | <50°F | 457 | November 7, 2025 |
| Minimum Recorded | 32.1°F | - | December 15, 2025 |
3.6 Response to Freezing Events
During freezing events (outside temp <32°F), a healthy colony should maintain at least 30°F above ambient. Hive 1's performance during freezing conditions:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Coldest Outside Temp | 18.4°F |
| Hive Temp Range During Freezing | 32.1°F to 58.2°F |
| Average Differential During Freezing | 18.7°F (should be >30°F) |
4. Recommendations & Early Warning System
4.1 Recommended Monitoring Thresholds
| Alert Level | Condition | Action Required |
|---|---|---|
| CRITICAL | Hive temp <50°F OR correlation with outside >0.7 | Immediate inspection required |
| WARNING | Hive temp <70°F for >24 consecutive hours | Inspect within 48 hours |
| CAUTION | Std deviation >10°F over 7-day period | Monitor closely, prepare intervention |
| HEALTHY | Hive temp 80-95°F with std dev <8°F | Normal monitoring schedule |
4.2 What to Look for Next Time
- Sustained Temperature Drops: Any period of 24+ hours below 75°F during winter months warrants inspection
- Increasing Variability: Rising standard deviation (>8°F) indicates colony population decline
- Loss of Thermal Independence: When hive temperature begins tracking outside temperature (correlation >0.5), the colony is weakening
- Reduced Cold Response: Healthy colonies maintain 30-40°F above ambient during freezing; differentials <20°F indicate problems
- Sudden Spikes: Extremely high temperatures (>100°F) may indicate fever response to disease
4.3 Suggested Interventions When Warnings Detected
- Inspect hive for queen presence and brood pattern
- Check for signs of disease (Nosema, Varroa mites, foulbrood)
- Assess food stores and supplement if low
- Consider combining weak colonies with strong ones
- Add insulation to hive exterior during cold periods
- Reduce entrance size to help colony maintain heat
5. Collapse Timeline
| Date | Event | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2025 | Monitoring begins - Avg temp 91.9°F | Healthy brood temperature |
| Oct 8-15 | Temperature drops to avg 74.6°F | Initial stress indicators |
| Oct 29-Nov 5 | Std dev peaks at 21.1°F | Major thermoregulation stress |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Outside temp monitoring begins | Weather correlation tracking starts |
| Nov 7, 2025 | FIRST CRITICAL EVENT - Below 50°F | First clear warning sign |
| Nov-Dec | Progressive decline continues | Colony unable to recover |
| Dec 3-10 | Average drops to 51.8°F | Sustained critical conditions |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Lowest temp recorded: 32.1°F | Colony in terminal state |
| Dec 29, 2025 | COLONY COLLAPSE - Sensor stops | Complete colony failure |
Report generated from HiveLink