January 10 - January 17 Analysis
🐝 Smoke House Apiaries Weekly Analysis
Thermoregulation Assessment & Colony Health Monitoring
📊 Executive Summary
Hive 3, 4 showing critical thermoregulation failure. Physical inspection recommended before next cold snap.
Hive 2 maintaining excellent thermoregulation with consistent 90°F core temperature.
🏠 Individual Colony Thermoregulation Assessment
📈 Week-over-Week Comparison
| Hive | Mean Temperature (°F) | Std Deviation (°F) | Hours <50°F | % Healthy | Correlation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | W2 | Δ | W1 | W2 | Δ | W1 | W2 | W1 | W2 | W1 | W2 | |
| Hive 1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Hive 2 | 90.5 | 90.1 | -0.5 | 2.02 | 2.13 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.863 | 0.513 |
| Hive 3 | 63.1 | 56.4 | -6.7 | 12.03 | 9.81 | -2.22 | 21.4 | 76.1 | 14.3% | 0.6% | 0.867 | 0.483 |
| Hive 4 | 60.7 | 51.5 | -9.2 | 10.91 | 10.59 | -0.31 | 31.8 | 135.9 | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.949 | 0.900 |
🌤️ Weather Conditions
Week 2 (Current Period)
Temperature: -7.8°F change | Freezing hours: 55.2 (Week 2) vs 12.2 (Week 1) | Wind: 2.1 vs 2.4 mph
🏆 Inter-Hive Comparison & Rankings
By Average Temperature (Higher = Healthier)
- 1 Hive 2: 90.1°F
- 2 Hive 3: 56.4°F
- 3 Hive 4: 51.5°F
By Stability (Lower Std Dev = Healthier)
- 1 Hive 2: 2.13°F
- 2 Hive 3: 9.81°F
- 3 Hive 4: 10.59°F
By % Time in Healthy Range
- 1 Hive 2: 100.0%
- 2 Hive 3: 0.6%
- 3 Hive 4: 0.4%
By Outside Correlation (Lower = Healthier)
- 1 Hive 3: 0.483
- 2 Hive 2: 0.513
- 3 Hive 4: 0.900
🚨 Alerts & Action Items
- Mean temp 56.4°F below 70°F
- 76.1 hours below 50°F
- Only 0.6% time in healthy range
- Low temp differential: 16.9°F
- Perform immediate physical inspection of the hive
- Check for queen presence and brood pattern
- Assess food stores and supplement with sugar syrup/fondant if needed
- Check for Varroa mite infestation and treat if necessary
- Consider combining with stronger colony if population is too low
- Add insulation and reduce entrance size to conserve heat
- Mean temp 51.5°F below 70°F
- Elevated variability: 10.6°F std dev
- 135.9 hours below 50°F
- Only 0.4% time in healthy range
- High outside correlation: 0.900
- Low temp differential: 12.0°F
- Perform immediate physical inspection of the hive
- Check for queen presence and brood pattern
- Assess food stores and supplement with sugar syrup/fondant if needed
- Check for Varroa mite infestation and treat if necessary
- Consider combining with stronger colony if population is too low
- Add insulation and reduce entrance size to conserve heat
📝 Field Notes from Physical Inspection (January 23, 2026)
- Consumed all sugar (active feeding)
- Full of bees — strong population
- Very aggressive behavior
- Steady 90°F all winter
Assessment: Confirmed healthy via physical inspection
- Had NOT touched most of their sugar
- Significant chewed wax on baseboard
Assessment: Untouched sugar + wax debris = likely dead colony or pest infestation (wax moth, SHB, or mouse)
- Consumed all sugar (actively feeding)
- Paper towel getting gross (moisture issue)
- Paper towel replaced, colony refed
- Temperature rose to 65-73°F after feeding
Assessment: Weak colony facing moisture stress but bees are alive and eating
🌤️ 7-Day Weather Forecast (Powell's Point, NC)
Data from National Weather Service (weather.gov) | Generated: January 27, 2026 22:33
- FREEZING temperatures expected (7 periods below 32F)
- Cold stress periods (14 periods below 50F)
- High wind periods increasing heat loss
📋 Weather-Based Recommendations for Your Hives
Should handle forecast conditions well. Strong population can maintain temperature even in cold snaps. No intervention needed.
Wait for warmer weather window to inspect. If confirmed dead, freeze frames to kill pests.
High risk from upcoming cold/wind. Consider:
- Adding insulation wrap
- Reducing entrance further
- Emergency fondant if needed
📐 Methodology Notes
1. Descriptive Statistics
Standard statistical measures calculated for each hive's hourly temperature readings:
Interpretation: Mean indicates overall thermal performance; Std Dev measures thermoregulation stability. Lower variability suggests a stronger, more populous colony.
2. Temperature Zone Classification
Each hourly reading is classified into biological health zones:
| Zone | Range | Biological Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Healthy/Brood | 80-95°F | Active thermoregulation, brood likely present |
| Caution | 70-80°F | Reduced colony activity, monitor closely |
| Warning | 50-70°F | Colony stress, weakened thermoregulation |
| Critical | <50°F | Imminent colony failure, bees dying |
3. Outside Temperature Correlation
Pearson correlation coefficient measures how closely hive temperature follows ambient temperature:
| Correlation | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| <0.3 | Healthy: Hive decoupled from ambient |
| 0.3-0.5 | Caution: Some ambient influence |
| 0.5-0.7 | Warning: Weakened thermal regulation |
| >0.7 | Critical: Colony failing to regulate |
Time Alignment: Nearest-neighbor matching with ±2 hour tolerance.
4. Temperature Differential Analysis
Measures the hive's ability to maintain temperature above ambient:
Biological Rationale: Strong colonies generate metabolic heat. A shrinking differential indicates fewer bees producing heat.
5. Week-over-Week Trend Analysis
Trends are classified based on change magnitude:
- Rising: Temperature change > +2°F
- Falling: Temperature change < -2°F
- Stable: Within ±2°F
Pre-Collapse Pattern: Falling temperature + Rising variability + Increasing outside correlation = Classic warning signs.
6. Sensor Validation
Temperature readings are validated for reasonable ranges. High temperatures (above 94°F) are considered valid as brood nest temperatures can naturally reach 95-97°F during active brood rearing. Only readings above 120°F or below 0°F are flagged as potential sensor malfunctions.
📋 Health Threshold Reference
| Metric | Healthy | Caution | Warning | Critical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Hive Temperature | 80-95°F | 70-80°F | 50-70°F | <50°F |
| Temperature Std Deviation | <8°F | 8-10°F | 10-14°F | >14°F |
| Outside Temp Correlation | <0.3 | 0.3-0.5 | 0.5-0.7 | >0.7 |
| Temp Above Outside | >30°F | 25-30°F | 20-25°F | <20°F |
| Time in Healthy Range | >70% | 50-70% | 30-50% | <30% |
| Hours Below 50°F | 0 | 1-6 | 6-24 | >24 |
Expected Healthy Values (Winter, ~40-60°F ambient): Hive avg temp 75-90°F | Std dev <8°F | Outside correlation <0.3 | Temp differential >30°F | Hours below 50°F: 0 | Time in healthy range >70%
📊 Data Quality Report
Total readings: 0
Valid readings: 0
Filtered out: 0
High temp readings (>94°F): 0
Total readings: 15209
Valid readings: 15209
Filtered out: 0
High temp readings (>94°F): 30
Total readings: 15209
Valid readings: 15209
Filtered out: 0
High temp readings (>94°F): 0
Total readings: 15209
Valid readings: 15209
Filtered out: 0
High temp readings (>94°F): 0
Conclusions are based on available sensor data. Factors affecting confidence:
- Sensor placement consistency
- Network connectivity and data transmission gaps
- Environmental factors affecting sensor accuracy
- Sample size for statistical calculations